The Master Trader + Website – Birinyi′s Secrets to Understanding the Market

<p>acknowledgments xiii</p>
<p>preface xv</p>
<p>Chapter 1: technical analysis: Fuhgeddaboudit 1</p>
<p>Indicators: Pick One, Any One 3</p>
<p>1990 Another Opportunity Missed 6</p>
<p>Notes 9</p>
<p>Chapter 2: the Failure of technical efforts 11</p>
<p>A Lack of Analysis . . . (Again) 13</p>
<p>The Advance/Decline Line: A Favorite Tool, but Why? 15</p>
<p>Volume? Another Important Indicator? Really? 20</p>
<p>Newsletters Once Upon a Time . . . 23</p>
<p>Predicting Rain Doesn t Count; Building Arks Does 25</p>
<p>Technical Analysis Fails a Rigorous Test 28</p>
<p>Notes 30</p>
<p>Chapter 3: technicals: the Last Word 31</p>
<p>Topical Studies: An Introduction 33</p>
<p>Notes 36</p>
<p>Chapter 4: Wall Street: Games people play 37</p>
<p>A Brokerage Firm Can t Calculate Performance? 40</p>
<p>Mr. Prechter 42</p>
<p>Notes 47</p>
<p>Chapter 5: Money Flows: The Ultimate Indicator 49</p>
<p>Playing with Blocks 51</p>
<p>It Is Not How Often; It Is How Much 54</p>
<p>The SEC s Study on the Information from Large Trades 58</p>
<p>Wall Street Week: The Record 63</p>
<p>Apple Is a Buy at $3? 65</p>
<p>Mr. Market s Voice 71</p>
<p>Notes 73</p>
<p>Chapter 6: Anecdotal Data 75</p>
<p>Magazines and Newspapers Are Databases in Disguise 80</p>
<p>Dow Theory in Real Time 84</p>
<p>Magazine Covers Overrated 87</p>
<p>Note 87</p>
<p>Chapter 7: Always Cut the Cards 89</p>
<p>Strategists: More Marketing Than Markets 91</p>
<p>Stock Market Research: An Oxymoron 94</p>
<p>The Issue of CAPE: Cyclically Adjusted Price–Earnings Ratio 95</p>
<p>Strategists: One More Thing . . . 97</p>
<p>What Do Stocks Really Return? 100</p>
<p>A Successful Model Except for Irrational Investors 102</p>
<p>The Press Should Be in the Reporting, Not Forecasting, Business 106</p>
<p>Notes 112</p>
<p>Chapter 8: DOW: 19,792? 115</p>
<p>Citibank (the Company) versus Citi (the Stock) 118</p>
<p>World War I: The Market Swoons, Oops, Rallies 120</p>
<p>The Dow Trades above 1,000 123</p>
<p>Notes 126</p>
<p>Chapter 9: That s Easy for You to Say! 129</p>
<p>BusinessWeek: 1998, 1999, and America Online 131</p>
<p>BEST: Real Time, Real Money, Real Results 134</p>
<p>Notes 136</p>
<p>Chapter 10: Playing the Game 137</p>
<p>Mr. Buffett Buys and Sells Silver 139</p>
<p>Bonds Can Go Down 143</p>
<p>Mr. Ellis: The Loser s Game 146</p>
<p>Wall Street Week: We Were Lucky (for Eight Years) 148</p>
<p>Money Managers Don t Get It? 149</p>
<p>Notes 154</p>
<p>Chapter 11: Have It Your Way 155</p>
<p>Weasel Words: Not Our Choice, but Know and Recognize 160</p>
<p>Chapter 12: The Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow? 163</p>
<p>Commissions Go Down; ERISA Changes the Rules 164</p>
<p>London s Big Bang: A Failure There, a Good Idea Here? 169</p>
<p>The Public versus All Others 173</p>
<p>High–Frequency Traders Get Billions, Brokers Prosper, but Are You Benefiting? 178</p>
<p>The Demise of the Japanese Market Was Structural 186</p>
<p>Notes 188</p>
<p>Chapter 13: Get Ready, Get Set . . . 191</p>
<p>Tracking Sentiment, or, Keeping Score of the Players 195</p>
<p>Note 196</p>
<p>Chapter 14: Market Cycles and Rotation 197</p>
<p>How to Tell Whether We Are in the Eighth or Ninth Inning 201</p>
<p>Group Rotation Exists; It Is Random but Worth Understanding 204</p>
<p>Small Stocks: On Average, Yes, but . . . 212</p>
<p>Growth versus Value: Advantage Growth, but . . . 214</p>
<p>Notes 216</p>
<p>Chapter 15: The Economy and the Federal Reserve Board 217</p>
<p>GDP and the Market, No Surprises Here 218</p>
<p>The Fed Tightens: It Hurts Only for a Little While 221</p>
<p>1994: A Little Perspective, if You Please 225</p>
<p>1995: Economists Predict Because They Are Asked, but Why? 226</p>
<p>Note 228</p>
<p>Chapter 16: Picking Stocks 229</p>
<p>Seeds: Ideas to Get You Started, Planting, and Harvesting Come Later 232</p>
<p>Sprained Wrists Eventually Heal (and Prosper) 233</p>
<p>Capitulation: Another Example of the Anecdotal Process 237</p>
<p>Trend Charts: Late In, Early Out but Profitable and Comfortable 239</p>
<p>Note 245</p>
<p>Chapter 17: The Trading Day 247</p>
<p>The Morning after a Big Day 250</p>
<p>What Do Futures Tell Us? 253</p>
<p>It s 10:00 a.m.; Do You Know Where Your Stocks Are Going? 253</p>
<p>Chapter 18: Mind the Gap 265</p>
<p>After the Post?]Market Fall . . . or Rally 267</p>
<p>Gaps Provide Opportunities and Have Some Tendencies, but None Written in Stone 270</p>
<p>Gaps Squared 272</p>
<p>Old Rule: Large Gaps Have to Be Closed New Rule: About 25 Percent 273</p>
<p>Chapter 19: You Must Remember This 277</p>
<p>It s Smart to Be Bearish, but Not Necessarily Profitable 279</p>
<p>You Can Never Know Too Much about Too Many Things on Wall Street 281</p>
<p>Notes 284</p>
<p>Chapter 20: Wall Street Week and Other Adventures 285</p>
<p>Salomon Brothers: The Bar Was High, Even for the Chef 287</p>
<p>Notes 289</p>
<p>Appendix A E xpansions/Recessions and Bull/Bear Markets 291</p>
<p>Appendix B Cost of Timing the Market 303</p>
<p>Dow Jones Return 303</p>
<p>Appendix C H istory of Regulation 307</p>
<p>Glossary 311</p>
<p>About the Author 315</p>
<p>About the Companion Website 317</p>
<p>Index 319</p>